Costs
What HVAC really costs installed
There are two HVAC costs, and the industry only talks about the first: the installed price (what you pay the contractor once) and the operating cost (what you pay the utility every month for 15 years). Here are honest ranges for both — use the tables to sanity-check any quote you're handed.
$/MMBtu = the cost to deliver one million BTU of heat, using EIA U.S. average energy prices (EIA US avg 2026). Your local prices change the answer — run your own →
Installed-price ranges (2026)
National ranges for a standard like-for-like replacement — equipment, labor and permit, reusing your existing ductwork and electrical. They exclude ductwork replacement, panel upgrades, and major venting or line-set (refrigerant piping) work. Not sure what size you need? Size it first →
Gas furnace — by efficiency
| Efficiency tier | Installed |
|---|---|
| 80% AFUE, single-stage | $3,800–$6,200 |
| 90–96% AFUE, condensing | $5,200–$8,800 |
| 96%+ AFUE, modulating | $7,500–$12,000 |
Gas furnace installed cost tracks efficiency (AFUE) far more than BTU size. Two independent aggregators converge on these bands and Trane's branded pricing corroborates the upper half — the most consistent cost data in the category.
Central air conditioner — by size
| Size | Installed |
|---|---|
| 1.5-ton | $3,500–$6,500 |
| 2-ton | $4,000–$7,000 |
| 2.5-ton | $4,500–$8,000 |
| 3-ton | $5,000–$9,500 |
| 3.5-ton | $5,500–$10,500 |
| 4-ton | $6,000–$11,500 |
| 4.5-ton | $6,250–$12,500 |
| 5-ton | $6,500–$13,500 |
Lower end ≈ base single-stage (SEER2 14–15); upper end ≈ premium variable-speed (SEER2 18+). Assumes existing ductwork.
Ducted heat pump — by size
| Size | Installed |
|---|---|
| 1.5-ton | $6,000–$12,000 |
| 2-ton | $7,000–$13,500 |
| 2.5-ton | $8,000–$15,000 |
| 3-ton | $9,000–$16,000 |
| 3.5-ton | $10,000–$18,000 |
| 4-ton | $11,000–$20,000 |
| 4.5-ton | $11,500–$21,000 |
| 5-ton | $12,000–$22,000 |
Ducted air-source heat pump. Lower end ≈ base efficiency (SEER2 14–15); upper end ≈ premium / cold-climate variable-speed (SEER2 18+). Anchored to real-transaction data — EnergySage ≈ $3,800/ton ducted, Carbon Switch owner survey $8k–$20k (typical $12k–$14k).
Ductless mini-split — by capacity
| System | Installed |
|---|---|
| single-zone, up to 15k BTU | $2,000–$5,500 |
| single-zone, 15–27k BTU | $3,000–$9,000 |
| single-zone 27k+ BTU or multi-zone | $4,000–$12,000 |
Ductless mini-split, installed. Cost scales with the number of indoor zones as much as capacity — a single head is far cheaper than a multi-head system of the same total capacity. These bands assume a single-zone install; multi-zone systems run higher (a 3–4 zone system commonly $10,000–$20,000).
Water heater installed-cost ranges (2026)
Water-heater installed cost tracks fuel type and segment far more than tank size. Ranges below are a standard like-for-like replacement (same fuel, same location/venting) unless labeled a conversion. Every water-heater product page shows the range that applies to that exact unit — see how we compile these.
Water heaters — by segment
| Segment | Installed |
|---|---|
| Gas storage tank swap (40-50 gal, same location/venting) | $700–$3,100 |
| Electric storage tank swap (40-50 gal, same location, existing 240V wiring adequate) | $500–$3,500 |
| Propane storage tank swap (appliance only — not the outdoor propane fuel tank) | $700–$2,500 |
| Gas tankless — REPLACEMENT of existing tankless unit (venting/gas line already sized correctly) typical ~$2,527 | $1,400–$4,000 |
| Gas tankless — CONVERSION from existing storage tank (gas line upsizing, venting change, mounting) | $2,100–$8,000 |
| Heat pump water heater (standard install, existing electrical panel has adequate capacity) typical ~$3,900 | $1,200–$9,000 |
Heat-pump water heaters often need a new 240V circuit ($300–$1,500) folded into the range above; some 120V plug-in models avoid that entirely. Gas-tankless conversion from an existing tank costs more than a straight tankless swap (gas-line/venting changes) — shown as its own row where it applies on the product page. Propane storage is a thin-source segment (see methodology). Oil-fired units have no published installed-cost range.
Compare installed quotes → Then check what it costs to run →
How to read an HVAC quote
- Get 2–3 quotes. The spread within a range is real — the same 3-ton heat pump can be quoted thousands apart. One quote is a number; three is leverage.
- Ask for the Manual J. If the size is bigger than our sizing estimate and there's no load calculation behind it, they're guessing — and oversized equipment runs worse, not better.
- Separate equipment from labor. A quote far below these ranges may be omitting the permit, the electrical, or corners you'll pay for later. A quote far above should itemize what the extra buys.
- Match it to the running cost. A cheaper install on a less-efficient unit can cost more over 15 years. Put the installed price next to the operating cost before you sign.
Installed ranges reconciled from published 2026 market data — EnergySage, Modernize, National Air Warehouse, This Old House, HVACprojectcost and others — with under-scoped lead-gen figures trimmed out; Ranges reconcile published 2026 market data. Real-transaction sources (EnergySage) and converging independent aggregators are trusted over lead-gen 'installed' figures that omit labor or permits — several of those ran about half of real quotes, so their under-scoped low ends are trimmed to a realistic simple-install floor. Where no tier is named, the range spans base to premium efficiency: base single-stage at the low end, premium variable-speed / cold-climate at the high end. Operating costs computed from published SEER2 / HSPF2 / AFUE ratings × EIA energy prices. Full method in methodology. Water-heater ranges reconciled separately, by fuel/segment — full method in water-heater methodology.