Tools & Calculators

Will a heat pump pay for itself?

By Erin Rose · Updated

A heat pump often costs more upfront but less to run. This puts a real number on the trade: how many years of energy savings it takes to earn back the extra cost — after rebates — and what you're ahead over 15 years. It runs on the same certified-efficiency math as the rest of the site, at your prices.

What the heat pump is replacing — this sets what you're saving against.
HSPF2
Heat delivered per unit of electricity — higher is more efficient. Standard ≈ 7.5 · efficient ≈ 9 · cold-climate ≈ 10–13.
MMBtu / yr
MMBtu = million BTU of heat your home needs per winter. Mild ≈ 20 · moderate ≈ 40 · large/cold ≈ 80+.
$
Illustrative — use your real quotes. Heat-pump install minus the baseline you'd otherwise buy. See installed ranges →
$
State / utility / HEEHRA — mostly favor heat pumps. Check yours →
$/ kWh
U.S. avg ≈ $0.1883/kWh.
$/ therm
U.S. avg ≈ $1.68/therm.
Your heat-pump payback
Pays for itself in
—
Net savings over 15 years
—
Annual energy savings vs. your current system—
Net extra cost (upfront − rebates)—

How it's computed. Annual savings = (your current system's $/MMBtu − the heat pump's $/MMBtu) × your heating load, using the same formulas as our operating-cost calculator (heat pump $/MMBtu = (1,000,000 ÷ 3,412) × electricity price ÷ COP, COP = HSPF2 ÷ 3.412; gas = 10 × gas price ÷ AFUE). Payback = (extra upfront − rebates) ÷ annual savings; 15-year net = annual savings × 15 − the net extra cost. It's a steady-state estimate: it doesn't model rising fuel prices, maintenance, or the value of the air conditioning a heat pump adds — all of which tend to shorten the real payback. If the heat pump is also cheaper upfront (net extra ≤ 0), it pays back immediately. Prices default to EIA U.S. averages (EIA US avg 2026). Full method in our methodology.

Heat pump vs. furnace — the full comparison → See the heat pumps →